Evaluating the average time complexity of a given bubblesort algorithm.

Considering this pseudo-code of a bubblesort:

FOR i := 0 TO arraylength(list) STEP 1  
    switched := false
    FOR j := 0 TO arraylength(list)-(i+1) STEP 1
        IF list[j] > list[j + 1] THEN
            switch(list,j,j+1)
            switched := true
        ENDIF
    NEXT
    IF switched = false THEN
        break
    ENDIF
NEXT

What would be the basic ideas I would have to keep in mind to evaluate the average time-complexity? I already accomplished calculating the worst and best cases, but I am stuck deliberating how to evaluate the average complexity of the inner loop, to form the equation.

The worst case equation is:

$$
\sum_{i=0}^n \left(\sum_{j=0}^{n -(i+1)}O(1) + O(1)\right) = O(\frac{n^2}{2} + \frac{n}{2}) = O(n^2)
$$

in which the inner sigma represents the inner loop, and the outer sigma represents the outer loop. I think that I need to change both sigmas due to the "if-then-break"-clause, which might affect the outer sigma but also due to the if-clause in the inner loop, which will affect the actions done during a loop (4 actions + 1 comparison if true, else just 1 comparison).

For clarification on the term average-time: This sorting algorithm will need different time on different lists (of the same length), as the algorithm might need more or less steps through/within the loops until the list is completely in order. I try to find a mathematical (non statistical way) of evaluating the average of those rounds needed.

For this I expect any order to be of the same possibility.

Recall that a pair $(A[i], A[j])$ (resp. $(i,j)$) is inverted if $i A[j]$.

Assuming your algorithm performs one swap for each inversion, the running time of your algorithm will depend on the number of inversions.

Calculating the expected number of inversions in a uniform random permutation is easy:

Let $P$ be a permutation, and let $R(P)$ be the reverse of $P$. For example, if $P = 2,1,3,4$ then $R(P) = 4,3,1,2$.

For each pair of indices $(i,j)$ there is an inversion in exactly one of either $P$ or $R(P)$.

Since the total number of pairs is $n(n-1)/2$, and the total number and each pair is inverted in exactly half of the permutations, assuming all permutations are equally likely, the expected number of inversions is:

$$\frac{n(n-1)}{4}$$

StackExchange Computer Science Q#20, answer score: 20