Why would optimiser choose Clustered Index + Sort instead of Non-Clustered Index?

Given the next example:

IF OBJECT_ID('dbo.my_table') IS NOT NULL
    DROP TABLE [dbo].[my_table];
GO

CREATE TABLE [dbo].[my_table]
(
    [id]    int IDENTITY (1,1)  NOT NULL PRIMARY KEY,
    [foo]   int                 NULL,
    [bar]   int                 NULL,
    [nki]   int                 NOT NULL
);
GO

/* Insert some random data */
INSERT INTO [dbo].[my_table] (foo, bar, nki)
SELECT TOP (100000)
    ABS(CHECKSUM(NewId())) % 14,
    ABS(CHECKSUM(NewId())) % 20,
    n = CONVERT(INT, ROW_NUMBER() OVER (ORDER BY s1.[object_id]))
FROM 
    sys.all_objects AS s1 
CROSS JOIN 
    sys.all_objects AS s2
GO

CREATE UNIQUE NONCLUSTERED INDEX [IX_my_table]
    ON [dbo].[my_table] ([nki] ASC);
GO

If I fetch all records ordered by [nki] (Non-clustered index):

SET STATISTICS TIME ON;
SELECT id, foo, bar, nki FROM my_table ORDER BY nki;
SET STATISTICS TIME OFF;

SQL Server Execution Times: CPU time = 266 ms, elapsed time = 493 ms

Optimiser chooses the clustered index and then applies a Sort algorithm.

Execution plan

But if I force it to use the non-clustered index:

SET STATISTICS TIME ON;
SELECT id, foo, bar, nki FROM my_table WITH(INDEX(IX_my_TABLE));
SET STATISTICS TIME OFF;

SQL Server Execution Times: CPU time = 311 ms, elapsed time = 188 ms

Then it uses non-clustered index with a Key Lookup:

Execution plan

Obviously if the non-clustered index is transformed into a covering index:

CREATE UNIQUE NONCLUSTERED INDEX [IX_my_table]
    ON [dbo].[my_table] ([nki] ASC)
    INCLUDE (id, foo, bar);
GO

Then it uses only this index:

SET STATISTICS TIME ON;
SELECT id, foo, bar, nki FROM my_table ORDER BY nki;
SET STATISTICS TIME OFF;

SQL Server Execution Times: CPU time = 32 ms, elapsed time = 106 ms

Execution plan

Question

• Why does SQL Server use the clustered index plus a sort algorithm instead of using a non-clustered index even if the execution time is 38% faster in the latter case?

If you were to compare the number of reads required in 100,000 lookups with what’s involved in doing a sort, you might quickly get an idea about why the Query Optimizer figures that the CIX+Sort would be the best choice.

The Lookup execution ends up being quicker because the pages being read are in memory (even if you clear the cache, you have a lot of rows per page, so you’re reading the same pages over and over, but with different amounts of fragmentation or different memory pressure from other activity, this might not be the case). It really wouldn’t take all that much to have CIX+Sort go quicker, but what you’re seeing is because the cost of a read doesn’t take into consideration the relative cheapness of hitting the same pages repeatedly.

StackExchange Database Administrators Q#222987, answer score: 9